Principal Component Analysis to Explore Climate variability of Pakistan

Syed Afrozuddin Ahmed, Junaid Saghir Siddiqi

Abstract


Various studies have reported that global warming causes unstable
climate and many serious impact to physical environment and public
health. The climatic or environmental structure data was processed
by coding, editing, tabulating, recoding, restructuring in terms of retabulating was carried out.Applying different statistical methods,
techniques and procedures for the evaluation.To study the global
warming effects on overall environmental conditions of Pakistan.
Annual data of maximum and minimum temperature of four provincial
capitals have been taken from 1947 to 2012. The data isconsideredas
representative environmental components, use for further analysis.
Time series plot shows difference of behaviors in maximum and
minimum temperatures of Karachi and Lahore while bend of Quetta
indicates increasing trend and Peshawar shows flat and smooth. The
fit of trend line, maximum temperature of Karachi, has significant
regression coefficient b = 0.0504 with p-value 0.000 and R2equal to
70.2%. The minimum temperature has decreasing trend but it is
insignificant. The data of Lahore shows decreasing and increasing
trends for maximum and minimum temperatures respectively shows
the differences reducing with the passage of time and expected to
have cooler weather than the past. Quetta and Peshawar temperatures
fit of trend lines and graphs, revealed that both cities getting warmer
with the passage of time.Principal component analysis is performed
for the purpose of finding if there is/are any general environmental
factor/structure which could be considered as Pakistani climate


The PC1 is constructed by six manifest variables and represent the
environmental factor called as “Index of Pakistan weather”. Explain
42.74% of the total variation. The time series plot of this index seems
to have increasing trend. The PC2 represents the temperature of
Karachi, Quetta and Lahore. PC3 is the contrast between of minimum
and maximum temperature. PC4 represents complex contrast between
maximum and minimum temperature explain 9.0% of total variation of
temperature. PC5 represent contrast between Karachi and Peshawar
weather and its contribution to the total or overall variation of Pakistani
weather is only 3.5%.


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References


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.” 2007.Report available at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=127.

WHO categorization of regions vulnerable to climate change: Available at http://www.who.int/heli/risks/climate/en/climmap0906.pdf.

Sadiq, N. and Qureshi, M. S. (2010). Climatic variability and linear trend models for the five major cites of Pakistan. Journal of Geography and Geology, 2 (1), 83-92

Sadiq, N. (2011). Principal Component and Clustering Analyses for Seasonal Classification of Karachi. Journal of Geography and Geology, 7 (14), 9-16

Jackson, J. E. (1991). A user guide to Principal Component. . Wiley series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22555/pjets.v4i1.526

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Chief Editor

Prof. Dr. Ejaz Ahmed 
Dean
College of Computer Science & Information Systems

Editor

Prof Dr. S. M. Aqil Burney

Associate Editors

Prof. Dr. Tariq Rahim Soomro
Dr. Muhammad Mansoor Aalam

Publication Coordinator
Konpal Darakshan

Editorial Advisory Board (Internal)

Dr. Syed Irfan Hyder
Dr. Mohammad Irshad Khan
Dr. Shahid Amjad
Dr. Abdul Rauf Farooqui
Dr. Syed Iftikhar Ali
Dr. Tajuddin Islamuddin
Dr. Muhammad Danish Khan
Dr. Imran Majid
Dr. Fatima Riaz
Dr. Zeeshan Shahid
Ms. Seema Ansari

Editorial Advisory Board (International)

Prof. Dr. Mazliham Mohd Su'ud, President, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Prof. Dr. Ghassan Al-Qaimari, President, Emirates College of Technology, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Prof. Dr. Patrice Boursier, Universite de La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
Prof. Dr. Mudassir Uddin, Professor, University of Karachi, Pakistan
Dr. Nadeem Doudpota, Associate Professor, Al-Baha University, KSA
Dr. Haithem Abdelrazaq Almefleh, Associate Professor, Yarmouk University, Yarmouk, Jordan
Dr. Saiful Islam Ansari, Assistant Professor, University of Tabuk, Saudi Arabia

Member Editorial Review Board (International – Academia)

Dr. Asadaullah Shah, Professor, International Islamic University, MalaysiaDr. Hasan Wahba, President American College of Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Tahseen Jilani, Assistant Professor, University of Manchester, UKDr. Atif Memon, Associate Professor, The University of Maryland, USA
Dr. Syed Waliullah Shah, University Sains, MalaysiaDr. Inayatullah Shah, International Islamic University, (Kuantam), Malaysia
Dr. Salahttin Kuru, Kemeburgaz University, TurkeyDr. Soon Min, INTI International University, Malaysia
Dr. Shahrulniza Musa, Professor, Malaysian France Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Bandar Baru Bangi, MalaysiaDr. R. Praveen Sam, Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, G. Pulla Reddy Engineering College, KURNOOL, India
Dr. Manzoor Ahmed Hashmani, Associate Professor, University Technology Petronas, MalaysiaDr. Alveera Mehdi, Professor, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India

Dr. Sajjad Waheed, Professor, Department of Information and Communication Technology, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Tangail 1902, Bangladesh

Dr. Kushairy Bin Abdul Kadir, Associate Professor, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia
Dr. Mohammad Hameed Ahmed AlTaei, Assistant Professor, Applied Sciences College, Sohar, OmanDr. Eiad Yafi, Associate Professor, Malaysian Institute of Information Technology Universiti, Malaysia
Dr. Muhammad Azam Sheikh, Assistant Professor, Chalmers University, SwedenDr. Safeeullah Soomro, Postdoc Dean College of Computer Studies, AMA Int. University, Bahrian
Dr. Aymen Adil Belghith, Assistant Professor, University of Sfax, Sfax,TunisiaDr. Radwan Alsadiq Alqirmazi, Assistant Professor, University of Sfax, Sfax,Tunisia
Dr. Mohammad Arif Amin, Assistant Professor, Higher College of Technology, Abu Dhabi Men’s College, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE)Dr. Ismat Aldmour, Assistant Professor, Al-Baha University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)
Dr. AbdulRahman Ahmed Mohammed Al-Sewari, Senior Lecturer, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Pahang, MalaysiaDr. Mohammed A. Afifi, Director, Associate of Science in Computer Science, Al Dar University College, Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Youssef Ahmed Masmoudi, Assistant Professor, Saudi Electronic University, Jeddah male Campus, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)Dr. Zulfiqar Memon, Assistant Professor, Ajman University of Science & Technology, Ajman, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Abdul Basit Samsuddin Banga, Assistant Professor, Saudi Electronic University, Jeddah male Campus, Kingdom of S. Arabia (KSA)Dr. Mohamad Ismail Sulaiman, Senior Lecturer, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia
Dr. Syed Faiz Ahmed, Senior Lecturer, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia

Dr. Jawad Ali Shah, Senior Lecturer, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia

Dr. Sarfraz Nawaz Brohi, Lecturer, Taylor’s Unversity, Lakeside Campus, Malaysia

Dr. Fahad Sikander, Assistant Professor, Saudi Electronic University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)


Member Editorial Review Board (International – Non Academia)

Dr. Abdul Razaque Memon, Director Solution Marketing at Huawei Technology, AustraliaDr. Syed Abbas, Project Director, NetSys Technical Services, Business Bay, Duabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Muntasser Khater, Educational Senior Consultant, CAN DU e-Business, Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) 

Member Editorial Review Board (National – Academia)

Dr. Madad Ali Shah, Professor and Vice Chancellor, BBS University of Technology & Skill Development, KhairpurDr. B. S. Chaudhry, Professor, Mehran University of Engineering & Technology (MUET), Jamshoro
Dr. Mir Ghulam Hyder Talpur, Professor, University of Sindh, JamshoroDr. Imdad Ismaili, Professor, University of Sindh, Jamshoro
Dr. Syed Asif Ali, Professor, Sindh Maderessah Tul Islam University, KarachiDr. Mukhtiar Ali Unar, Professor, Mehran University of Engineering & Technology (MUET), Jamshoro
Dr. Syed Amir Iqbal, Associate Professor, NED University, KarachiDr. Syed Haider Shah, Associate Professor, Univeristy of Balochistan, Quetta
Dr. Talal Shrafat Rehmani, NUST, KarachiLt. Cdr. Dr. Asif Mansoor, NUST, Karachi
Dr. Faisal Maqbool Zahid, Associate Professor, University of Faisalabad 

Member Editorial Review Board (National – Non Academia)

Dr. Amir Khan, Ministry of Defense, Govt. of Pakistan, KarachiDr. Bahrawar Jan, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Islamabad