Forecasting Monthly Maximum Temperature of Karachi City using Time Series Analysis

S.M. Aqil Burney, Mushtaq Ahmad Khan Barakzai, Steve Ernest James


The maximum temperature has led to several complications in our day to day life in the city of Karachi. Rising temperature has affected human health and in some cases has led to the deaths of civilians. In this study, the temperature data of Karachi city in Pakistan over period from January 2005 to December 2015 is assessed. A preliminary graphical method added with the analysis of Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation Function indicated that the data is not stationary and has seasonal factor.  SARIMA model of order (0, 0, 2) with seasonal order (2, 1, 1) and period 12 is used to forecast the maximum temperature of the Karachi city over a period of 12 months. We use R software to complete this study. This study will help the policy makers and the insurers to better plan for the future.

Full Text:



O. US EPA, “Climate Change Indicators: U.S. and Global Temperature,” US EPA, 27-Jun-2016. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 18-Sep-2018].

O. US EPA, “Climate Change Indicators in the United States,” US EPA, 06-Nov-2015. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 18-Sep-2018].

World Meteorological Organization, WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2011. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization, 2012.

A. B. Farooqi, A. H. Khan, and H. Mir, “CLIMATE CHANGE PERSPECTIVE IN PAKISTAN,” Pak. J. Meteorol., vol. 2, no. 3, p. 11, 2005.

Q.-Z. Chaudhry, Climate Change Profile of Pakistan. Manila: Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017.

M. A. Hussain, S. Abbas, and M. R. K. Ansari, “FORECAST MODELS FOR URBAN EXTREME TEMPERATURES : KARACHI REGION AS A CASE STUDY,” The Nucleus, no. 4, p. 12, 2010.

D. R. Helsel and R. M. Hirsch, Statistical methods in water resources. Amsterdam ; New York: Elsevier, 1992.

M. B.- Domi, “Trend Analysis of Temperatures and Precipitation in Jordan.” Umm Al-Qura University Journal of Educational, Social Sciences & Humanities, 2005.

K. N, “Trend Detection in Annual Temperature & Precipitation using the Mann Kendall Test – A Case Study to Assess Climate Change on Selected States in the Northeastern United States,” 2012. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 18-Sep-2018].

S. Solomon, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Eds., Climate change 2007: the physical science basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge ; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

H. McElhinney, “Six months into the floods: Resetting Pakistan’s priorities through reconstruction,” p. 26.

L. A. Vincent and É. Mekis, “Changes in Daily and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices for Canada over the Twentieth Century,” Atmosphere-Ocean, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 177–193, Jun. 2006.

“Climate and average monthly weather in Pakistan.” [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 18-Sep-2018].

“Karachi, Pakistan Forecast,” Weather Underground. [Online]. Available: /weather/pk/karachi. [Accessed: 18-Sep-2018].


College of Fisheries, Assam Agricultural University Raha, India-782103 and A. N. Patowary, “MONTHLY TEMPERATURE PREDICTION BASED ON ARIMA MODEL: A CASE STUDY IN DIBRUGARH STATION OF ASSAM, INDIA,” Int. J. Adv. Res. Comput. Sci., vol. 8, no. 8, pp. 292–298, Aug. 2017.

A. H. Nury, M. Koch, and M. J. B. Alam, “Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Temperatures in the Sylhet Division of Bangladesh,” p. 4.



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Chief Editor

Prof. Dr. Ejaz Ahmed 
College of Computer Science & Information Systems


Prof Dr. S. M. Aqil Burney

Associate Editors

Prof. Dr. Tariq Rahim Soomro
Dr. Muhammad Mansoor Aalam

Publication Coordinator
Konpal Darakshan

Editorial Advisory Board (Internal)

Dr. Syed Irfan Hyder
Dr. Mohammad Irshad Khan
Dr. Shahid Amjad
Dr. Abdul Rauf Farooqui
Dr. Syed Iftikhar Ali
Dr. Tajuddin Islamuddin
Dr. Muhammad Danish Khan
Dr. Imran Majid
Dr. Fatima Riaz
Dr. Zeeshan Shahid
Ms. Seema Ansari

Editorial Advisory Board (International)

Prof. Dr. Mazliham Mohd Su'ud, President, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Prof. Dr. Ghassan Al-Qaimari, President, Emirates College of Technology, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Prof. Dr. Patrice Boursier, Universite de La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
Prof. Dr. Mudassir Uddin, Professor, University of Karachi, Pakistan
Dr. Nadeem Doudpota, Associate Professor, Al-Baha University, KSA
Dr. Haithem Abdelrazaq Almefleh, Associate Professor, Yarmouk University, Yarmouk, Jordan
Dr. Saiful Islam Ansari, Assistant Professor, University of Tabuk, Saudi Arabia

Member Editorial Review Board (International – Academia)

Dr. Asadaullah Shah, Professor, International Islamic University, MalaysiaDr. Hasan Wahba, President American College of Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Tahseen Jilani, Assistant Professor, University of Manchester, UKDr. Atif Memon, Associate Professor, The University of Maryland, USA
Dr. Syed Waliullah Shah, University Sains, MalaysiaDr. Inayatullah Shah, International Islamic University, (Kuantam), Malaysia
Dr. Salahttin Kuru, Kemeburgaz University, TurkeyDr. Soon Min, INTI International University, Malaysia
Dr. Shahrulniza Musa, Professor, Malaysian France Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Bandar Baru Bangi, MalaysiaDr. R. Praveen Sam, Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, G. Pulla Reddy Engineering College, KURNOOL, India
Dr. Manzoor Ahmed Hashmani, Associate Professor, University Technology Petronas, MalaysiaDr. Alveera Mehdi, Professor, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India

Dr. Sajjad Waheed, Professor, Department of Information and Communication Technology, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Tangail 1902, Bangladesh

Dr. Kushairy Bin Abdul Kadir, Associate Professor, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia
Dr. Mohammad Hameed Ahmed AlTaei, Assistant Professor, Applied Sciences College, Sohar, OmanDr. Eiad Yafi, Associate Professor, Malaysian Institute of Information Technology Universiti, Malaysia
Dr. Muhammad Azam Sheikh, Assistant Professor, Chalmers University, SwedenDr. Safeeullah Soomro, Postdoc Dean College of Computer Studies, AMA Int. University, Bahrian
Dr. Aymen Adil Belghith, Assistant Professor, University of Sfax, Sfax,TunisiaDr. Radwan Alsadiq Alqirmazi, Assistant Professor, University of Sfax, Sfax,Tunisia
Dr. Mohammad Arif Amin, Assistant Professor, Higher College of Technology, Abu Dhabi Men’s College, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE)Dr. Ismat Aldmour, Assistant Professor, Al-Baha University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)
Dr. AbdulRahman Ahmed Mohammed Al-Sewari, Senior Lecturer, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Pahang, MalaysiaDr. Mohammed A. Afifi, Director, Associate of Science in Computer Science, Al Dar University College, Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Youssef Ahmed Masmoudi, Assistant Professor, Saudi Electronic University, Jeddah male Campus, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)Dr. Zulfiqar Memon, Assistant Professor, Ajman University of Science & Technology, Ajman, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Abdul Basit Samsuddin Banga, Assistant Professor, Saudi Electronic University, Jeddah male Campus, Kingdom of S. Arabia (KSA)Dr. Mohamad Ismail Sulaiman, Senior Lecturer, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia
Dr. Syed Faiz Ahmed, Senior Lecturer, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia

Dr. Jawad Ali Shah, Senior Lecturer, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia

Dr. Sarfraz Nawaz Brohi, Lecturer, Taylor’s Unversity, Lakeside Campus, Malaysia

Dr. Fahad Sikander, Assistant Professor, Saudi Electronic University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)

Member Editorial Review Board (International – Non Academia)

Dr. Abdul Razaque Memon, Director Solution Marketing at Huawei Technology, AustraliaDr. Syed Abbas, Project Director, NetSys Technical Services, Business Bay, Duabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Muntasser Khater, Educational Senior Consultant, CAN DU e-Business, Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) 

Member Editorial Review Board (National – Academia)

Dr. Madad Ali Shah, Professor and Vice Chancellor, BBS University of Technology & Skill Development, KhairpurDr. B. S. Chaudhry, Professor, Mehran University of Engineering & Technology (MUET), Jamshoro
Dr. Mir Ghulam Hyder Talpur, Professor, University of Sindh, JamshoroDr. Imdad Ismaili, Professor, University of Sindh, Jamshoro
Dr. Syed Asif Ali, Professor, Sindh Maderessah Tul Islam University, KarachiDr. Mukhtiar Ali Unar, Professor, Mehran University of Engineering & Technology (MUET), Jamshoro
Dr. Syed Amir Iqbal, Associate Professor, NED University, KarachiDr. Syed Haider Shah, Associate Professor, Univeristy of Balochistan, Quetta
Dr. Talal Shrafat Rehmani, NUST, KarachiLt. Cdr. Dr. Asif Mansoor, NUST, Karachi
Dr. Faisal Maqbool Zahid, Associate Professor, University of Faisalabad 

Member Editorial Review Board (National – Non Academia)

Dr. Amir Khan, Ministry of Defense, Govt. of Pakistan, KarachiDr. Bahrawar Jan, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Islamabad