Do local and global macroeconomic variables help forecast volatility of Pakistani stock market?

Javed Iqbal, Mariam Javed

Abstract


Emerging markets are characterized by higher volatility and higher associated returns as compared to developed markets. The excessive volatility in emerging markets is often considered a result of inherent instability and unpredictability of country’s political, institutional and macroeconomic environment. Increasing globalization and integration of financial markets imply that volatility of emerging markets may also be affected by global macroeconomic and business conditions. We investigate this issue for an emerging market namely Pakistan. An important objective of this research is to provide empirical evidence on whether local and global macroeconomic variables help forecast volatility of this market over and above the GARCH models which predict volatility on the basis of past shocks and past accumulated variance. Using monthly data over the post liberalization period from early 1990 to 2010 we show that global variables have higher explanatory power to affect Pakistani stock market volatility compared to the global information variables.


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Chief Editor

Prof. Dr. Ejaz Ahmed 
Dean
College of Computer Science & Information Systems

Editor

Prof Dr. S. M. Aqil Burney

Associate Editors

Prof. Dr. Tariq Rahim Soomro
Dr. Muhammad Mansoor Aalam

Publication Coordinator
Konpal Darakshan

Editorial Advisory Board (Internal)

Dr. Syed Irfan Hyder
Dr. Mohammad Irshad Khan
Dr. Shahid Amjad
Dr. Abdul Rauf Farooqui
Dr. Syed Iftikhar Ali
Dr. Tajuddin Islamuddin
Dr. Muhammad Danish Khan
Dr. Imran Majid
Dr. Fatima Riaz
Dr. Adeel Ansari
Dr. Zeeshan Shahid
Ms. Seema Ansari

Editorial Advisory Board (International)

Prof. Dr. Mazliham Mohd Su'ud, President, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Prof. Dr. Ghassan Al-Qaimari, President, Emirates College of Technology, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Prof. Dr. Patrice Boursier, Universite de La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
Prof. Dr. Mudassir Uddin, Professor, University of Karachi, Pakistan
Dr. Nadeem Doudpota, Associate Professor, Al-Baha University, KSA
Dr. Haithem Abdelrazaq Almefleh, Associate Professor, Yarmouk University, Yarmouk, Jordan
Dr. S. Asim Ali, Assistant Professor, University of Karachi, Pakistan

Member Editorial Review Board (International – Academia)

Dr. Asadaullah Shah, Professor, International Islamic University, MalaysiaDr. Hasan Wahba, President American College of Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Tahseen Jilani, Assistant Professor, University of Manchester, UKDr. Atif Memon, Associate Professor, The University of Maryland, USA
Dr. Syed Waliullah Shah, University Sains, MalaysiaDr. Inayatullah Shah, International Islamic University, (Kuantam), Malaysia
Dr. Salahttin Kuru, Kemeburgaz University, TurkeyDr. Soon Min, INTI International University, Malaysia
Dr. Shahrulniza Musa, Professor, Malaysian France Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Bandar Baru Bangi, MalaysiaDr. R. Praveen Sam, Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, G. Pulla Reddy Engineering College, KURNOOL, India
Dr. Manzoor Ahmed Hashmani, Associate Professor, University Technology Petronas, MalaysiaDr. Alveera Mehdi, Professor, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, India

Dr. Sajjad Waheed, Professor, Department of Information and Communication Technology, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Tangail 1902, Bangladesh

Dr. Kushairy Bin Abdul Kadir, Associate Professor, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia
Dr. Mohammad Hameed Ahmed AlTaei, Assistant Professor, Applied Sciences College, Sohar, OmanDr. Eiad Yafi, Associate Professor, Malaysian Institute of Information Technology Universiti, Malaysia
Dr. Muhammad Azam Sheikh, Assistant Professor, Chalmers University, SwedenDr. Safeeullah Soomro, Postdoc Dean College of Computer Studies, AMA Int. University, Bahrian
Dr. Aymen Adil Belghith, Assistant Professor, University of Sfax, Sfax,TunisiaDr. Radwan Alsadiq Alqirmazi, Assistant Professor, University of Sfax, Sfax,Tunisia
Dr. Mohammad Arif Amin, Assistant Professor, Higher College of Technology, Abu Dhabi Men’s College, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE)Dr. Ismat Aldmour, Assistant Professor, Al-Baha University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)
Dr. AbdulRahman Ahmed Mohammed Al-Sewari, Senior Lecturer, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Pahang, MalaysiaDr. Mohammed A. Afifi, Director, Associate of Science in Computer Science, Al Dar University College, Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Youssef Ahmed Masmoudi, Assistant Professor, Saudi Electronic University, Jeddah male Campus, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)Dr. Zulfiqar Memon, Assistant Professor, Ajman University of Science & Technology, Ajman, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Abdul Basit Samsuddin Banga, Assistant Professor, Saudi Electronic University, Jeddah male Campus, Kingdom of S. Arabia (KSA)Dr. Mohamad Ismail Sulaiman, Senior Lecturer, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia
Dr. Syed Faiz Ahmed, Senior Lecturer, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia

Dr. Jawad Ali Shah, Senior Lecturer, British Malaysian Institute, Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Gombak, Malaysia

Dr. Sarfraz Nawaz Brohi, Lecturer, Taylor’s Unversity, Lakeside Campus, Malaysia

Dr. Fahad Sikander, Assistant Professor, Saudi Electronic University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)


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Dr. Abdul Razaque Memon, Director Solution Marketing at Huawei Technology, AustraliaDr. Syed Abbas, Project Director, NetSys Technical Services, Business Bay, Duabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Dr. Muntasser Khater, Educational Senior Consultant, CAN DU e-Business, Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) 

Member Editorial Review Board (National – Academia)

Dr. Madad Ali Shah, Professor and Vice Chancellor, BBS University of Technology & Skill Development, KhairpurDr. B. S. Chaudhry, Professor, Mehran University of Engineering & Technology (MUET), Jamshoro
Dr. Mir Ghulam Hyder Talpur, Professor, University of Sindh, JamshoroDr. Imdad Ismaili, Professor, University of Sindh, Jamshoro
Dr. Syed Asif Ali, Professor, Sindh Maderessah Tul Islam University, KarachiDr. Mukhtiar Ali Unar, Professor, Mehran University of Engineering & Technology (MUET), Jamshoro
Dr. Syed Amir Iqbal, Associate Professor, NED University, KarachiDr. Syed Haider Shah, Associate Professor, Univeristy of Balochistan, Quetta
Dr. Talal Shrafat Rehmani, NUST, KarachiLt. Cdr. Dr. Asif Mansoor, NUST, Karachi
Dr. Faisal Maqbool Zahid, Associate Professor, University of Faisalabad 

Member Editorial Review Board (National – Non Academia)

Dr. Amir Khan, Ministry of Defense, Govt. of Pakistan, KarachiDr. Bahrawar Jan, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Islamabad